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Showing posts from September, 2023

Oracle stock valuation update-Partnership with Microsoft and Too Aggressive Capital Expenditure

Term: Net Capex: this post refers to the accounting number of capital expenditures less depreciation. R&D: research and development Reinvestment: How much the company put back into the company NOWC: Non-cash current asset-Non debt current liability, the cost the company needs to incur for day-to-day business. FCF: Free cash flow Operating profit Margin: Operating income/Revenue In my previous Oracle valuation here , I concluded that Oracle relies on mergers and acquisitions to grow while spending little on capital expenditure and R&D (research and development) to power internal growth. So, I just use the net capital expenditure/estimated M&A cost to estimate future net capex. However, as shown in Figure 1 below, Oracle’s Capex/revenue ratio doubled in 2022 and again in 2023. And the most recent quarterly report shows it does not plan to stop spending more on capex soon. So, how do I estimate how much Oracle will spend on Capex in the next ten years? In addition,...